Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.008011 0.009026 0.010123 0.011396 0.012834 0.014410 0.016269
2026-01-25 0.006354 0.007738 0.009357 0.011391 0.013883 0.016842 0.020628
2026-02-01 0.005327 0.006846 0.008720 0.011209 0.014434 0.018483 0.023972
2026-02-08 0.004699 0.006309 0.008386 0.011271 0.015185 0.020333 0.027650
2026-02-15 0.004164 0.005804 0.008003 0.011178 0.015662 0.021800 0.030891
2026-02-22 0.003840 0.005538 0.007893 0.011412 0.016567 0.023884 0.035133
2026-03-01 0.003395 0.005046 0.007407 0.011050 0.016560 0.024639 0.037487
2026-03-08 0.003061 0.004679 0.007059 0.010838 0.016730 0.025636 0.040250
2026-03-15 0.002756 0.004323 0.006690 0.010552 0.016743 0.026369 0.042637
2026-03-22 0.002642 0.004249 0.006740 0.010910 0.017783 0.028766 0.047867
2026-03-29 0.002509 0.004131 0.006708 0.011129 0.018604 0.030866 0.052778
2026-04-05 0.002394 0.004032 0.006694 0.011370 0.019474 0.033102 0.058098
2026-04-12 0.002222 0.003826 0.006490 0.011283 0.019790 0.034454 0.062050
2026-04-19 0.002080 0.003659 0.006340 0.011274 0.020242 0.036076 0.066634
2026-04-26 0.001924 0.003454 0.006106 0.011093 0.020365 0.037112 0.070221
2026-05-03 0.001821 0.003334 0.006013 0.011155 0.020929 0.038985 0.075534
2026-05-10 0.001704 0.003180 0.005844 0.011063 0.021193 0.040314 0.079906
2026-05-17 0.001643 0.003124 0.005849 0.011295 0.022091 0.042911 0.087006
2026-05-24 0.001509 0.002919 0.005560 0.010936 0.021802 0.043174 0.089393
2026-05-31 0.001405 0.002765 0.005356 0.010727 0.021790 0.043977 0.092955
2026-06-07 0.001301 0.002603 0.005125 0.010443 0.021601 0.044402 0.095744
2026-06-14 0.001277 0.002599 0.005204 0.010798 0.022763 0.047694 0.105015
2026-06-21 0.001239 0.002563 0.005216 0.011015 0.023646 0.050470 0.113393